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Last Thursday, the S&P 500 entered a bull market — up 20% from its recent lows. But the market’s strength has been mostly driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Before the Bell: AI is causing a big market boom right now, but that boom also seems to be concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks. Everything you wanted to know about a bull market but were afraid to askThe US entered a bull market last Thursday, finally. A bear in bull’s clothes: A 20% lift from recent lows is generally accepted as the definition of the start of a bull market.
Persons: , Matt Bartolini, Bell, Pets.com, I’m, They’ve, Adam Turnquist, James Demmert, what’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Meta, US, LPL, Big Tech, Main, Research, Investors, Federal Reserve, P Global Market Intelligence, , European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New York, Europe, SPDR Americas, Big, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong
Six months into 2023, the S&P 500 is having an impressive year, returning more than 11% so far since January. Only 44% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to LPL Financial. Technology and consumer are the only sectors up on the year, and even they are exhibiting narrow breadth," he said. Bank of AmericaOf course, market breadth could improve if the fundamental economic outlook improves along with investor sentiment. If the labor market stays sturdy, a stock market rally could become more sustainable.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Mike Wilson, Here's David Rosenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, LPL, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, North, UBS, NYSE, Technology, of America's Locations: North American, China
The S&P 500 broke out above a key level. Now what?
  + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —The S&P 500 index on Friday closed at its highest level in almost a year. The S&P 500 ended last week up 1.8% at about 4,282, marking its best weekly gain since late March. Now that the index has managed to breach the top level of resistance, that raises the question: Does this rally have legs? An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 is up only about 1.5% for the year. The good news is that the S&P 500 will likely return to trading within the 3,800 - 4,200 range, meaning any downside — at least in the short term — will likely be limited, according to Turnquist.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, , José Torres, Adam Turnquist, “ There’s, , ” Bitcoin, Saqib Iqbal, ” Iqbal, bitcoin, Iqbal, Smucker Compan, Baker Hughes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Interactive, LPL, Treasury Department, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Trading.biz
Stock futures held steady in overnight trading Wednesday after the market wrapped the month of May, marked by a dramatic rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both flat. The S&P 500 inched up 0.3% in the month, while the blue-chip Dow fell almost 3.5%, dragged down by Nike , Walt Disney and Chevron . Investors are closely watching a bill that would raise the debt ceiling and cut government spending. Beyond the debt ceiling battle, investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's June 13-14 policy meeting as another possible market catalyst.
Persons: Nordstrom, Salesforce, Dow, Walt, Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler, Adam Turnquist, Patrick Harker Organizations: NYSE, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Nike, Walt Disney, Chevron, Investors, LPL, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington, Philadelphia
After slumping 28% last year, the S&P 500 real estate sector (.SPLRCR) has gained about 1% in 2023, lagging an 8% rise for the overall S&P 500 (.SPX). Real estate is the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to underperform the benchmark index in both 2022 and so far in 2023. The real estate sector has slumped 2% since SVB's troubles came to light on March 8, compared to a 4% rise for the S&P 500. “There is nothing about the current banking situation ... that made life easier for real estate companies,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel. S&P 500 real estate company earnings are expected to fall 0.3% this year after rising almost 11% in 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES.
The index gets its value derived from option prices on short-term bets being made on the S & P 500. Market strategists say one explanation for the muted VIX is the explosion of zero-day-to-expiration options (ODTEs), contracts that expire the same day that they're traded. "The VIX Index might have become obsolete as a risk barometer," Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group's chief investment officer, said in a note. Daily notional volumes in these 0DTE options that track the S & P 500 index have exploded to reach a record $1 trillion, according to JPMorgan. LPL Financial analyzed VIX levels for all trading days when the S & P 500 was in a drawdown ranging from 18.5% to 28.5%.
The December Low Indicator just signaled stocks should finish 2023 in the green. The indicator also shows the S&P 500 could return well above 10% this year. A stock-market signal with a 94% accuracy rate just delivered good news: there's a high chance stocks finish positive in 2023. The S&P 500 returned more than 7% in the first quarter, so it's well on its way to a double-digit year." The Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS) and the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) offer exposure to the above areas of the market.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. And after the chaotic few days following Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, unsurprising is what markets needed. The bigger news of the day was banks' — and investors' — reaction to U.S. financial regulators' measures to protect the financial industry. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Of course, the muted reaction to the CPI might be because the numbers were exactly in line with estimates. The bigger news of the day was banks' — and investors' — reaction to U.S. financial regulators' measures to protect the financial industry. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Stock futures opened higher Sunday evening as investors awaited details on the next steps in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Federal regulators are conducting an auction for Silicon Valley Bank. The major indexes are coming off a losing week after the collapse of SVB sent shockwaves through the stock market. On Friday Silicon Valley Bank was taken over by regulators after massive withdrawals a day earlier created a bank run. "If the market feels that SVB is an isolated event, then the fear and contagion driven selling may abate.
Big investors including Kyle Bass and Bill Ackman argue the government must take quick action to avoid Silicon Valley Bank's collapse sparking more widespread withdrawals in the banking system. That could be determined by how hard the world's central banks continue to push interest rates higher. The market is signaling contagion could factor into the Fed's calculus, possibly prompting it to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Silicon Valley Financial Group was deeply woven into the fabric of the technology industry. Bass and Ackman separately warned that the government would have to move quickly in resolving Silicon Valley Bank to assure depositors.
Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a "golden cross" chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows. Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof. JANUARY JUMPThe S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy. GOLDEN CROSSMeanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.
Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a "golden cross" chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows. Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof. JANUARY JUMPThe S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy. GOLDEN CROSSMeanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.
The Fed is widely seen as raising its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in its first policy meeting of the year, after rapid increases in 2022 to tame decades-high inflation. That's the Fed's issue as they finish up their two-day policy meeting today," Turnquist added. All of the 11 major sectors on the S&P 500 were down, with technology shares (.SPLRCT) falling the least. Seventy percent of the 200 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported fourth-quarter earnings have topped Wall Street expectations. Analysts now see earnings of S&P 500 firms declining 2.4% for the quarter, per Refinitiv estimates.
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